Ukraine’s GDP in annual terms will fall by 15% if restrictive measures related to countering the spread of coronavirus infection last until May. This opinion was commented by GORDON by the economist, rector of the International Institute of Business, deputy head of the NBU in 1991-1992 and 2005-2009, Alexander Savchenko.
“If restrictive measures are extended until May, even without the introduction of a state of emergency, then my forecast is that Ukraine’s GDP will fall by 15% on an annualized basis. Why? The answer is simple: restrictive measures have already caught a quarter of the country’s gross domestic product – trade, transport, transportation, tourism, hotel and restaurant business. And what is a 15% drop in GDP for the country? In dollars, our gross domestic product is $ 150 billion, which means a 15% drop is a $ 22.5 billion loss, ” – predicts Savchenko.
In his opinion, soon restrictive measures will affect other areas, in particular, the construction business.
“For example, no one will buy apartments, the construction sector will fall by 50-60%, and after it the production of building materials and so on,” – he considers.
Unemployment, according to Savchenko, will grow to 25%. At the end of 2019, according to the State Statistics Service (.doc), unemployment in Ukraine was 8.7%.
“Real incomes of citizens on average will fall by about 15% per year. Unemployment, according to my estimates, will grow to 25%. Already, more than a million people across Ukraine have been left without work and livelihoods. In Kiev alone, I counted about 300 thousand. people who have lost their jobs. These are sellers, waiters, cooks, janitors, security guards, and so on. Even couriers have become much smaller. ” – he said.
Savchenko believes that small businesses and senior citizens will suffer the most from the economic crisis.
“Losses, by the way, will be uneven, because the state sector and those who are involved in it will lose practically nothing. Officials both received and will receive. The main blow will fall on the private sector and on pensioners. Small businesses already completely destroyed, and for pensioners, due to inflation and a drop in the hryvnia exchange rate, the purchasing power of a pension will sharply decrease, ” – the expert noted.
According to the forecasts of the Office of the President, according to the optimistic scenarioThe decline in the Ukrainian economy from the spread of coronavirus will amount to 5% of GDP in 2020.