Russia decided that it could simultaneously fight with the two strongest players in the oil market – Saudi Arabia and the United States, but in the end it itself got problems due to falling oil prices, Mikhail Gonchar, president of the Strategy XXI Center for Global Studies, said in a comment to GORDON .
“In order for the Russian Federation to not be able to survive, oil prices should stay at the current level for quite some time. At least a few years. Now we see peak drops, and not the fact that they will last so long. Nevertheless, Russia did not count on such a scenario “They didn’t think that the price would fall so much. The mood in Moscow is panicky, especially considering that Saudi Arabia is not going to turn on the reverse and the Americans are threatening new sanctions. And the general situation on the oil market does not promise Russia anything good. It is possible what is the situation I with prices can become the same as in the 1990s. Then the cost of a barrel fluctuated around $ 10. Therefore, the Russian Federation faces serious problems that it itself caused without providing that it could turn out differently than it seemed. would say it’s a strategic miss[g[g[г[гlava “Rosneft” Igor]Sechina. Because it was Rosneft that was against the new agreement in the OPEC plus format. There was already an oversupply of oil on the market, and because of the coronavirus it has increased even more, “Gonchar emphasized.
According to him, Saudi Arabia successfully displaces Russian oil from the European market.
“Russia decided that it could simultaneously fight with the two strongest players in the oil market – Saudi Arabia and the United States. Because of its illusion of grandeur, the Russians decided that they could punish both of these countries. Hit on shale production in America and Saudi export earnings to force play them according to Russian rules and at the same time help Iran defeat Saudi Arabia, but so far it turns out that Russia just shot it in the foot and Sechin pulled the trigger. The Saudis and the Americans, despite different motives, united and shared they put Russia back in a knee-elbow position. Americans – with sanctions, Saudis with low prices and premium oil exports to the European market. They squeeze out Russian oil, no one has been buying it for two weeks. Even the Chinese now look at the situation differently, ” – noted Gonchar.
The fall in oil prices has continued since early March. The main reason was that Russia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries could not agree on new restrictions on the level of oil production. By March 9, the price of Brent oil fell by 30% to $ 33 per barrel, which was the maximum daily drop since 1991, when the Gulf War began. On the evening of March 18, the price of Brent oil fell to a 17-year low of $ 25.4 per barrel.
As of the evening of March 19, oil of the Russian Urals brand fell to a minimum since February 2002 – $ 18.64 per barrel.
Amid unsuccessful negotiations, Saudi Arabia, according to Bloomberg sources, decided to “enter into a total price war” and increase production from 9 million to 12 million barrels per day. This, according to analysts polled by the agency, “will lead to chaos in the oil market.” In addition, Riyadh is trying to oust Russian Urals brand oil from the European market by offering to triple its own supply of Arab Light at great discounts, making Urals uncompetitive.