According to Longini’s forecast, such a surge in mortality is likely to lead to a temporary overload of the health care system, but after it the country will be able to gradually remove restrictions on the movement of citizens, since “maximum damage will already be done.”
“Perhaps the partial removal of restrictions for the least vulnerable categories of the population will make some sense after three weeks,” the epidemiologist noted.
He also urged to observe the experience of China, where the authorities have already begun to gradually abandon the previously taken tough measures to curb the spread of infection.
At the same time, Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist from the University of Vanderbild, USA, said that it is likely that reaching the peak of the epidemic will take up to six weeks, since the spread of coronavirus across the states is currently uneven.
In turn, a specialist in modeling diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Dr. Stefan Flasche, believes that it is impossible to predict the peak in mortality, as its onset will depend on many factors, including the effectiveness of the quarantine regime. In his opinion, it is also likely that the United States will have to survive several peaks in the next 12 months, since the population does not yet have immunity to the virus.
According to recent data, in the United States recorded more than 55.2 thousand cases of infection. 801 people died, 354 were cured. In total, more than 423 thousand people were infected with coronavirus infection in the world, more than 18.9 thousand were killed, 108.6 thousand were cured.
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